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New Delhi: A new exit poll by Today’s Chanakya has made big predictions for the 2026 assembly elections in several states, including West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry.
 
 
I Written By ~ Anshika Chauhan I
 
 

West Bengal: Big Lead for BJP

According to the poll, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could win around 192 seats in West Bengal. The state assembly has 294 seats, and a party needs 148 seats to form the government.
The ruling All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) and its allies (TMC+) are expected to get only 100 ± 11 seats with about 38% vote share. Other parties may win just 2 ± 2 seats, meaning they could almost disappear from the results.
Different Predictions from Other Polls

Other exit polls show very different results:

• Praja Poll: BJP may win 178 to 208 seats
• Matrize: BJP may get around 161 seats
• Poll Diary: BJP may get about 171 seats
But some polls predict a win for TMC:
Janmat Polls: TMC may win 195 to 205 seats
Peoples Pulse: TMC may win 177 to 187 seats
These polls suggest that TMC’s strong organisation and welfare schemes could help it stay in power.

Tamil Nadu: DMK Likely to Stay in Power

In Tamil Nadu, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance is expected to remain in power. A major highlight is the entry of actor Vijay’s party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which has created excitement in the state.

Kerala: Close Fight, UDF Ahead

In Kerala, the usual pattern of changing governments may continue. The United Democratic Front (UDF) is predicted to win 69 ± 9 seats, slightly ahead of the Left Democratic Front (LDF). This means UDF could form the next government.

 

Challenges in Exit Poll Data

Pollsters also faced problems while collecting data. Axis My India said that many people were not ready to talk, so their sample was only 20–30%, which may not be fully accurate.
The head of Axis My India, Pradeep Gupta, said that because of this, they were unsure about releasing Bengal predictions. Later, he confirmed that their agency would not release Bengal exit poll numbers.
 

Final Note

Voting in West Bengal was held in multiple phases and ended on Wednesday. Since different exit polls are showing very different results, the final outcome remains uncertain. The actual results will reveal which prediction was correct.